In connection with FSN's interview with the commander of the 13th Security Battalion, Lieutenant Colonel Oscar Ljungmark, the editorial team met with members of the intelligence section. The section explains that they often work with scenario planning to try to anticipate and understand what the future might look like. For FSN, the intelligence section recounts one of these scenarios. At the end of the interview with your battalion commander, Oscar Ljungmark mentioned that you often work with scenarios?

That's correct, we try to make assessments of what we think we might face so that we have an idea of what we should focus on and work towards. It is very situation-specific and can be directed towards specific activities or aim to provide an overall picture of the situation that we and Sweden as a whole are in. What we intend to talk about now is one of many scenarios we foresee could be possible from a holistic perspective. The scenario we choose to recount should therefore be seen as an example, without an evaluation of whether we see this particular scenario as the most likely or not. The purpose of choosing to talk about this and being interviewed is, as Oscar Ljungmark explained – we need to be more visible and we want to contribute to a greater awareness of the reality we all live in.

Interesting, tell us more?

In this scenario, we foresee a period of increased security reporting concerning physical protection values important to the Swedish Armed Forces (Försvarsmakten), such as sensitive depots, IT and telecommunications facilities, and critical infrastructure, for example, nuclear and hydropower. Information about this increased security reporting then reaches the public – either through a leak or because a military region or the Operations Command communicates it as part of their communication. It is worth noting that nuclear and hydropower usually do not fall under the Swedish Armed Forces' own protection values – but they are still vital due to the role they play in critical dependencies. Impact on them has a significant effect on society and therefore constitutes a potential and clear target choice for an adversary.

Is this something you have seen before?

Yes, security reporting always fluctuates. There can be various reasons for this, but what we can say is that if a foreign power is preparing an attack against Sweden, they must gather information about military installations, activities, and critical infrastructure. I can say that this presence is noticeable, it is something that is happening here and now. Then one can discuss whether the phenomenon is new. We claim that it might be in the approach, target choice, and to some extent risk-taking that trends can be seen, he says and continues.

Then it is obvious that every time this happens, war is not imminent. It also matters what the security reporting is about. Then, of course, this is a multi-layered analysis one makes: if the events can clearly be attributed to a foreign power and we simultaneously see other signs that an escalation is imminent, it is a clear sign that we have moved higher up on the conflict scale. That escalation can, in this case, mean simply moving from gathering to action, or conducting preparations that go beyond the step of gathering.

Interesting. I think we need to pause briefly and define what security reporting is.

Absolutely. Security reporting consists of everything that someone or something perceives as constituting a security threat. And for it to become a security report, it must be reported to the nearest military unit. It does not matter who the informant is in that regard, it can be both a government employee and someone from the public. Therefore, it is important that everyone, even those who do not know how the reporting should ideally be conducted or what truly constitutes a security incident, is attentive and reports when they see something they perceive as suspicious. That said, not everything someone perceives as suspicious will prove to be a security threat, but it is up to others to assess.

I understand. So depending on what your sensors report, in combination with several other variables, it results in a total assessment?

Exactly, there are of course many different variables, but in this scenario, the beginning consists of increased security reporting.

However, we want to emphasize that security reporting often provides a good entry point for further action, so the message is; trust your instincts and report security concerns! Sometimes a vague security report in combination with other information – sometimes several years later – can lead to a security operation with very good effect. There are several such examples.

Got it. How does the scenario continue?

Another variable that arises during the scenario is increased pressure on Sweden in...