The Swedish Defence Commission (Försvarsberedningen) submitted its interim report on 12 June, titled Heightened Alert: Current Situation in Total Defence and the International Environment (Ds 2026:12). The Commission assesses that the security policy situation remains serious and that the build-up of defence is proceeding from a low baseline.
– The security policy situation remains serious and is characterised by considerable uncertainty, the Defence Commission writes in the report.
The Commission notes that the situation will not return to the state that existed prior to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia is identified as the greatest threat to Sweden, through both military means and hybrid attacks such as intelligence operations, influence operations, and sabotage. China and Iran are also described in the report as conducting security-threatening activities against Sweden.
The report describes a changed American policy. According to the Commission, US conduct is increasingly characterised by unpredictability, transactionalism, and a greater willingness to employ military force unilaterally, while strategic focus shifts towards the Indo-Pacific region.
The Commission also follows up on the 2024 Total Defence Decision and Sweden's integration into NATO, including the agreed capability targets (Capability Target 2025). This also encompasses the cross-party agreement from June 2025, under which 50 billion Swedish kronor has been allocated for civil infrastructure and stockpiling of food, pharmaceuticals, and fuel.
On the military side, the principal message is that the build-up is proceeding from a low baseline and that the starting position has in several respects proved worse than previously known, particularly regarding the condition and availability of materiel. The war organisation is to be operational to the greatest possible extent by 2030, but will require further reinforcement beyond that point.
In the chapter on obstacles to growth, the Commission highlights time as the decisive factor and calls for accelerated decision-making, increased financial flexibility, and simplified permit processes. The strategic role of the defence industry is addressed in detail. According to the report, exports in 2025 accounted for approximately 54 per cent, equivalent to 28 billion kronor, of total defence materiel revenues of 52 billion kronor in Sweden.
The interim report is not the Commission's final product. The Defence Commission has requested an extension and plans to submit its final report in spring 2027.