Time is critical.
For some, time is so pressing that the circumstances are difficult to relate to for those of us here in the free, not yet war-stricken West. A few weeks ago, we received yet another high-level Ukrainian delegation on a visit to Sweden and FMV. The meetings centred on the possibilities of delivering materiel to Ukraine, conducting joint procurements, and continuing support in establishing the Ukrainian procurement authority, the Defence Procurement Agency (DPA). All within the framework of the cooperation agreement FMV signed with Ukraine during the NATO Summit in Vilnius (Lithuania) in the summer of 2023.
When one of the industry representatives participating in one of the meetings began to speak about deliveries of materiel in 2027-2028, one of Ukraine's delegates reacted swiftly and replied:
"Deliveries in 2027 are too late. I need the materiel now. I don't even know if my country will exist in three years."
His words have stayed with me. A grave, perhaps drastic, yet fully composed and truthful statement. Even though I have long advocated how important time is in the new context of materiel supply, this became a concrete and very telling example of how the time factor is absolutely decisive.
The strategic context for military materiel supply is, in fact, entirely new. The global security situation is alarming. Every indicator points in the wrong direction.
With a raging war in our immediate neighbourhood, escalating conflicts in the Middle East that risk fragmenting our focus in the West, and internationally wavering political support for Ukraine, we must recognise that we cannot continue as before.
We need to deliver more, and faster. To avoid war, we must prepare for war.
After many years of modest financial allocations, the Swedish parliament (Riksdag) and government are now injecting funds on such a scale that the curve for the procurement appropriation may soon be described as exponential. At last, say I and my colleagues.
Our challenge now is to manage increased financial appropriations, rapid technological development, Sweden's accession to NATO, support for Ukraine, the growth of the Swedish Armed Forces (Försvarsmakten), as well as the security of supply and availability of the materiel being delivered.
Throughout all of this, we must constantly keep operational effect at the forefront. We must always think of the soldier and the sailor, who deserve the best materiel we can collectively achieve in order to survive and prevail on tomorrow's battlefield.
So far, FMV has managed to meet the new conditions and requirements. Over the past two years, 2022 and 2023, we have placed orders totalling nearly 90 billion Swedish kronor with industry. In 2023, we achieved a net growth of over 300 employees. FMV is performing well. We are delivering on our mission.
However, placed orders are one thing, but the materiel also needs to be produced and delivered. The defence industry in the West is scaling up its production, but it is not enough. Compared with Russia, which has restructured its entire economy and production to wartime conditions, our peacetime production, albeit ramped up, risks falling short.
At the same time as nations are queuing to procure defence materiel, the Western industry hesitates. The risk of scaling up "too much" is being left with costly facilities that do not generate sufficient return on investment once the war is over and a new peace emerges, with a plausible Western disinterest in defence materiel.
Here, everyone must be willing to take risks. The Riksdag and government can contribute with long-term planning conditions that allow for flexibility, procurement authorities must be forward-leaning and place orders, and industry must be willing to invest. In some cases, state investments may even need to be considered. The production capacity of the defence industry is currently so vital that all available methods must be taken into account.
An absolute prerequisite for succeeding with materiel supply is, however, a changed mindset. Everyone involved in the materiel supply process must recognise that we are in a new situation that places entirely different demands on us.
Lead times need to be shortened. Initiative must be permitted and encouraged. Forums for dialogue between civilian and military parties must be created, so that those leading technological development contribute to solving defence materiel challenges. International cooperation aimed at interoperability and interchangeability must be strengthened, so that our collective operational effect increases. National-specific requirements for materiel must be removed or significantly curtailed.