In prolonged conflicts, increased demands are placed on how military materiel is produced and kept operational. During the Navy Tech & Seabed conference in Gothenburg (western Sweden), Fredrik Lindén from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) highlighted the need for increased industrial capacity and warned that today's production capability could become a decisive limitation.

Last week saw intense naval activity in Gothenburg, with both prominent port visits and subsequent conferences. From 3 to 5 February, the Navy Tech & Seabed conference, organised by Navy Leaders, took place at Gothia Towers. The conference attracted hundreds of participants from around the world, and during the event, leaders in the naval sector gave presentations on both current status and future prospects, with Nordic Defence Sector present for interviews.

Fredrik Lindén is the head of the Marine Materiel Division at the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV), a role he assumed on 1 July 2023. On the first day of the conference, he delivered the presentation Acquisition Lex Ukraine, focusing on how rearmament should be managed and the importance of both industrial production and stockpiling of materiel.

– Warfare buys time, but industry determines the outcome, said Lindén during his address.

In conference room R15, Nordic Defence Sector subsequently met Lindén for an interview where he had the opportunity to elaborate on his reasoning. He was pleased with the first day of the conference and believes there is much that all parties can learn from each other.

– When you are in these contexts, it is always interesting to listen to the industry and the political will. What challenges do we see, what needs exist, and how can we find solutions? My concern is not really the lack of ideas, as there are plenty of them. The challenge is that very few of them can be produced on a large scale.

Lindén believes that production capability is the major bottleneck.

– And when I say we, I mean that we together must find better ways to increase production capacity. Sweden is an extremely engineer-dense country, but we must become better at actually producing, whether it involves labour-intensive production or automation.

Do you believe that Sweden has the political will to achieve this?

– Absolutely. But I think we have been a bit one-sided. We have had quite little large-scale production and instead focused on a few, advanced platforms. This is linked to the orientation we previously had, expeditionary forces and short conflicts, explains Lindén.

The reality that is now emerging, however, requires a different approach. According to Lindén, we see a world today where conflicts risk lasting significantly longer than previously planned for. This places new demands on how materiel is produced and maintained.

– Then we must ask ourselves how we plan to endure a long conflict and how we produce to maintain the operational availability of the equipment needed?

He also emphasises that it would be a mistake to prepare only for today's war.

– If we only prepare for the war we see right now, we are doing it wrong. We must prepare for both what we know and what we think we know and at the same time accept that there is always an unknown factor. It is about acquiring materiel in a way that preserves freedom of action, regardless of how the next conflict looks.

As more actors increase their military build-up, high demands are placed on production capacity, which Lindén believes risks lagging behind. During his presentation, he discussed the possibility of buying space in the production line, a concept he elaborates on in the interview.

– If FMV buys something for the navy, we are not just buying a product, we are also buying a place in the queue. But sometimes it might be smarter to buy production space today, even if we formally get more money later. It's really pure speculation, but it could be a good investment, says Lindén and continues:

– It might not be the navy that needs the space just then, but the air force or the army. If we have systems that are similar, we can also use the same space together. In practice, it is about buying the industry's idle capacity, which is also crucial for maintaining a combat tempo over time.

What lessons can you take from Ukraine?

– One must understand that Sweden is in relative peace, while Ukraine is at war. This means that one can cut significantly harder in the bureaucratic processes.

Fredrik Lindén taps the table as if to illustrate a repetitive drumbeat.

– I heard someone use the term drumbeat. And it never stops beating. They test everything they do in an operational context, all the time. Then the pace from idea and improvement to production, delivery, and use also increases.

When startups are mentioned, Lindén describes opportunities but also points out limitations. A large part of the interview has revolved around production and how industry and the sector should meet the needs that exist. Scaling up thus appears as a central and complex issue.

– Many startups have very good ideas. The question I always ask is what production capacity exists and how quickly can we get many of the product in question?

– That is often where it falls short. There are plenty of ideas, but the production capability is not always sufficient. Who should bear the cost of scaling up? Is it something we buy, should the state step in, or should startups join forces with larger actors in conglomerates? There are many possible paths forward, says Fredrik Lindén in conclusion.