FOI and NATO Publish Analyses on Russian Warfare

Two new reports from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut, FOI) and NATO Defense College analyse how the war in Ukraine has altered Russian military strategy. The "transparent battlefield" has forced a return to attrition warfare and sparked debate on how new technology can break the deadlock.

Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) and NATO Defense College (NDC) have each published a report on the evolution of Russian military thinking. Both publications identify the "transparent battlefield" as the single most important driver of change. The combination of drones and space-based sensors has made it impossible to conceal troop concentrations, which according to the NDC report, has eliminated the element of surprise.

According to Oscar Jonsson, author of the NDC report, Russia has been forced to abandon its pre-war strategy of "active defence" in favour of attrition and positional warfare. The report describes how Russian strategists now view the "shield" as stronger than the "sword," as defensive positions benefit from the transparency provided by sensors.

FOI's report confirms this view and describes a "positional stalemate" where ground forces have been unable to conduct manoeuvre warfare. According to the report, there is an ongoing debate within the Russian army between traditionalists who want to maintain a focus on mass and firepower, and those advocating for a restructuring towards smaller and lighter units.

Both reports conclude that Russia's goal is to restore the conditions for manoeuvre warfare through technological development. FOI notes that this has manifested in the formation of a new branch of defence for unmanned systems.

The NDC report describes how Russia is attempting to emulate Ukraine's network-centric warfare. By linking conventional weapons with faster command systems and AI, the report suggests that Russia aims to engage targets in depth.

Despite the war in Ukraine being dominated by ground battles, FOI highlights that the Russian navy remains committed to its ambition of being a maritime great power. The report points out that the navy sees itself as an instrument for global presence and non-nuclear deterrence, including through ships equipped with long-range cruise missiles.

Nuclear weapons still form the backbone of Russian security policy. FOI reports an ongoing discussion in Russia regarding how to restore the "fear" of nuclear weapons in the West, as Russian rhetoric during the war has not fully deterred Western support for Ukraine.

The conclusion from NDC is that NATO will face a Russian military accustomed to operating in an environment saturated with drones and sensors in the future. FOI describes the ongoing war as a "transitional war" that has exposed structural weaknesses but also forced adaptation and intellectual reassessment within the Russian armed forces.