The Finnish military intelligence assesses in its public report for 2026 that the international security environment continues to be characterised by increased tensions, great power rivalry, and an ongoing war in Ukraine. The report emphasises that Finland is not considered to face an immediate military threat during the year, but the situation requires continuous monitoring and analysis.
According to the Finnish Defence Forces' press release, the purpose of the report is to provide a public and current overview of developments in the security environment as well as the role of military intelligence in the changing global situation.
In the report Military Intelligence 2026 (PDF), it is noted that Russia's military capacity in Finland's vicinity has not yet significantly changed, despite ongoing defence reforms and continued investments in the armed forces. However, Russia's influence in Europe has increased, and the country continues to attempt to re-establish its global great power position. The war in Ukraine is still ongoing, which is seen as a central element in Russia's quest for influence.
The report describes the Baltic Sea as a growing geopolitical tension area and notes that power shifts in the Middle East have become increasingly apparent. According to the intelligence service, the global situation is characterised by a return to power politics and increased geopolitical friction. The report highlights that Finnish military intelligence assesses the risk of an immediate military attack against Finland remains low in 2026.
Finland's membership in NATO has changed the intelligence service's working methods, and the report highlights the importance of creating a common situational understanding together with allies. At the same time, it emphasises the importance of further developing the intelligence service's capacity to operate in an increasingly digitalised environment and to identify threats at an earlier stage.
The report states that the global security order is increasingly characterised by great power competition, increased use of power instruments, and a fragmentation of previously stable collaborations. The threshold for using military means in combination with non-military influence methods has become lower in several parts of the world, according to the analysis.
Finland's intelligence activities are being developed in light of NATO membership, new technology, and the need for a common situational understanding. According to the report, this is happening against the backdrop of a digitalised and rapidly changing operational environment.