The Finnish Defence Forces Research Agency (FDRA) has published a new study on how Finland's operational environment may develop through to 2040. The study identifies five overarching drivers assessed to have the greatest significance for Finland's defence and security over the coming 15 years.
According to a press release from the FDRA, the study Finnish Future Operational Environment 2040 builds on previous strategic futures analyses as well as international studies of future operational environments. The aim is to describe the particular conditions of Finland's operational environment in 2040 and to analyse how these affect the country's defence.
The study identifies five central drivers of change: great power competition, threats from the immediate security environment, alliances and partnerships, the changing character of warfare, and Finnish society and total defence. The study concludes that Russia will continue to constitute a permanent military threat to Finland, while NATO's development, Europe's security architecture, and the growing strategic importance of the Arctic will all shape the future operational environment.
The report also highlights that new technologies, including artificial intelligence, quantum technology, autonomous systems, and space-based capabilities, may transform future warfare. At the same time, the study emphasises that nuclear weapons, climate change, supply security, and societal resilience will remain of considerable importance to Finland's defence.
The study describes two overarching trajectories: a prolonged period of instability without open conflict, and a scenario in which a war in northern Europe directly affects Finland. Regardless of which trajectory materialises, uncertainty, simultaneous disruptions, and the need for a whole-of-society defence are assessed to characterise the operational environment through to 2040. The study also notes that Finland should avoid short-term and reactive measures, as well as a defence system in a constant state of maximum readiness. As a NATO member, Finland is assessed to have greater opportunities than before to influence its own security trajectory.