The Finnish Defence Forces' research institute has completed FIN FOE 2040, a study of the country's future operating environment and its implications for national defence. The study is intended to support long-term defence planning and preparedness.
The study identifies five overarching driving forces expected to shape Finland's future operating environment. These are great power competition, emerging security threats, Finland's alliances and partnerships, developments in warfare and military capabilities, and changes in society and the comprehensive security and defence system.
The driving forces have been analysed through a number of possible expressions and development paths. Based on these, the researchers have developed two main scenarios: "Uncertainty continues" and "War in Europe". The study also includes four so-called "What if" scenarios, said to broaden the picture of possible future courses of events.
Five characteristics are described as recurring in the main scenarios: uncertainty, a rapidly changing and unstable security environment, a multi-layered military defence, selective partnerships, and a defence system that forms an integrated part of society.
According to the study, Finland's operating environment will continue to be strongly influenced by external actors and increasingly rapid geopolitical developments. Finland should therefore avoid short-term and reactive measures, as well as the risk of keeping the defence system in a permanent state of overload, according to the researchers.
The researchers also believe that certain traditional assumptions and principles within military defence need to be reconsidered. Several parts of the defence system are still based on a clear division between war and peace, including in legislation, authority responsibilities, organisation, resources and organisational culture.
According to the study, this division is becoming increasingly problematic when Finland faces adversaries that do not make the same clear distinction between war and peace.
Finland's long-standing tradition of resilience and survival capability is at the same time described as a continuing strength. However, the study warns against overly literal or cynical interpretations of the survival concept, as these risk becoming self-fulfilling.
As a NATO member, Finland has, according to the study, better opportunities to influence its own future and strengthen the country's security together with allies and partners.