With heart in mouth, he ventured into 2023. In the defence industry, a deteriorating global security situation is good for business. But it should not be that way. If sufficient allowance were made in security policy to account for the rises and falls in risk levels, which occur faster than any country can rearm and disarm, the emergency measures we are now forced to take could have been avoided.
One can only hope that after the situation we have now found ourselves in, the worst since the period just before the World Wars, it can remain a constant reminder that hope is not a strategy and that new black swans will always emerge.
The year has been very successful for Avioniq. The order from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) to use our missile and aircraft modelling tools (AqLab and AqModel) across all government activities under the Ministry of Defence is an example of how a small company can achieve great things. This is particularly true in the space between high-tech and defence, where focus and specialist expertise, rather than processes and headcount, are the keys to innovative products. The Swedish Armed Forces (Försvarsmakten), through FMV, have shown leadership here and dared to invest in a small innovator in a core Swedish area: modelling and simulation. Admittedly, we have been under evaluation for nearly four years, but that is to be expected when procuring the building blocks for future innovations.
Modelling and simulation may appear dry and theoretical from a distance, but the truth is that today it is an absolute requirement for innovation across most areas of defence development, especially in combat aviation. AI is frequently highlighted as the major driver of innovation in the coming years, perhaps decades, but AI needs data to train on, vast amounts of data. This data cannot be gathered from actual flights, as there are far too few and they are too varied. Instead, it must be generated through massive simulations and then verified through flight testing. Our modelling tools are thousands of times faster and considerably more modern than current products, which translates directly into a faster pace of development.
The fact that the Swedish Armed Forces now have access to the very latest technology in modelling and simulation means they are at the cutting edge. But this cutting edge can only deliver real-world effect if it is exploited to create innovative products built on, among other things, AI. That will be our challenge heading into 2024: getting decision-makers in both the Swedish Armed Forces and the defence industry to understand the potential of these types of products, the operational effect they can deliver, and to move beyond simply ordering slightly more of what already exists.
2023 involved a great deal of travel, particularly within Europe. I am not sure whether risk appetite is simply greater outside Sweden, or whether being a small Swedish company in Sweden carries its own particular weight, but things move faster abroad. In the United Kingdom, for example, a Rapid Capability Office (RCO) has been established, whose purpose is to take in interesting technology from companies and assess its potential military value. We went from our first meeting to installation and demonstration at general officer level in just over six months, including bespoke development work. The Swedish Armed Forces should consider a similar arrangement. It is, however, important that such a process actually leads to orders if trials go well, within months, not years. There is always competition from a large part of the industry that is perfectly content if you simply order more of what has already been developed, precisely because it has already been developed.
Despite the security situation having been in constant decline throughout 2023, and Sweden lagging behind in its rearmament due to starting from very low levels, and despite the genuine willingness we encounter from every official we meet, we remain stuck in a budgeting and procurement process that makes everything take an inordinate amount of time. For large companies with long sales cycles and major multi-year orders, this is less problematic, if still suboptimal for innovation. For smaller companies, time is a resource that is often simply not available. Our hope is that 2024 will be the year when processes are streamlined. Too many current procedures seem designed to turn every penny over three times and ensure nothing can happen until consensus is reached, rather than to deliver effect here and now. I love the word "Act!", and it should apply to these processes too.
On a personal note, I have failed in one of my duties as a father during 2023. I have not managed to warm my 13-year-old daughter to the idea of becoming a combat pilot, the best profession in the world. She knows nothing about the salary or whether most pilots are women or men, so that is not where the issue lies. It simply seems she is not interested. Yet. Interestingly, the boys in her class appear more enthusiastic. Well, the family motto is never to give up, so throughout 2024 I will continue to describe what a combat pilot actually does, which should eventually lead to an application. Suggestions for persuasive arguments are most welcome.
Mikael Grev, CEO of Avioniq AB and former combat pilot