Finland's defence, foreign affairs and interior ministries have published the results of a joint foresight project, "Russia's Futures". The report sets out four possible paths for Russia up to 2045.
— Finland and Europe must prepare simultaneously for several possible futures for Russia, said Terhi Ylitalo, the project's coordinator at the Ministry of Defence.
In "Renewing Russia", the country is a pragmatic regional power that mixes competition, cooperation and incentives. "Declining Russia" loses influence and grows more dependent on China. "Imperialist Russia" is an authoritarian, expansionist regional great power that achieves its main foreign-policy goals. "Chaotic Russia" is a nuclear state in deep internal crisis. It keeps pursuing a risky, violent and warlike policy.
— Preparedness should therefore rest on a review of alternative scenarios, not on single assumptions about developments in Russia, Ylitalo continues.
The scenarios are built on 22 factors driving change in Russia and 14 key uncertainties. Dozens of experts, researchers and officials took part. It is the fourth such project since 2007.
The project also lists measures that are needed whichever scenario plays out. These include containing Russian aggression, supporting Ukraine, strengthening resilience and building expertise on Russia. The main report can be read here.