The Supreme Commander and the Armed Forces have submitted their recommendations to the government regarding how Sweden's defense capabilities should be developed. These recommendations form the basis for the upcoming defense decision planned for 2024.
Russia identified as the primary threat in the near term
The Supreme Commander emphasizes in his recommendations that Russia will remain the most immediate threat to Sweden's security for the foreseeable future. Therefore, Swedish defense policy requires consideration of the risk that Russia's ongoing conflict with Ukraine could escalate to attacks on other countries.
Changes in defense capabilities to strengthen NATO integration
To achieve increased integration with NATO, the Armed Forces propose certain changes. These include an emphasis on air defense across all branches of the military and adaptations to enable participation in NATO's Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD). Furthermore, it is assumed that two of the army's brigades will eventually contribute to NATO's regional defense planning, as well as a mechanized battalion to NATO's joint operations and activities. Logistics and infrastructure must also be developed to function as a support area and transport base for allied forces.
Requirements for personnel reinforcement and training
To meet the demands for increased operational capability, recruitment and training of personnel are required. An increase in the number of conscripts to 10,000 individuals per year is proposed starting in 2030. Around the turn of the year, the government announced that they wanted to see 10,000 somewhere between 2030 and 2035. At the same time, the Armed Forces advise against establishing additional organizational units and activities in specific locations.
Need for modernization of equipment and investments
Modernization of existing equipment and infrastructure is necessary to support the growth and increased capability of the Armed Forces. The major needs include investments in infrastructure and the acquisition and re-acquisition of defense equipment. These investments are required to enable increased defense capability within the period 2030-2040.
In summary, the Armed Forces' recommendations highlight the need for extensive changes and investments to meet the new security landscape that Sweden's NATO membership entails. The future ability to protect Sweden's security and defend the country's interests requires significant adaptations in military, personnel, and material matters.
Additionally, advice regarding the development of the Armed Forces in the period 2025-2035 was also presented.
Army: The Army will be developed with a focus on increased digitalization and modernization. This includes the establishment of a division command with associated brigades, particularly mechanized and infantry brigades, as well as a strategic platform on Gotland. Air defense capability will be strengthened through integration with NATO's air and missile defense. Additionally, the Army will develop unmanned aerial systems, patrol robots, and rocket artillery to enhance its capabilities.
Navy: The Navy plans to mid-life modify Visby-class corvettes to increase sensors and air defense capacity. Four new surface combat ships of the Luleå class, new submarines of the Blekinge class, and underwater vehicles will be acquired. The increased air defense capability allows the surface combat ships to integrate into NATO's air and missile defense. Furthermore, amphibious capability will be strengthened with new boats, weapon systems, and air defense.
Air Force: The Air Force plans to introduce the JAS 39E and acquire four new transport aircraft. Its ability to integrate into NATO's air defense will be developed, including the capability to engage ground targets at long distances. They will also acquire more helicopters for ground operations and sea operations, while strengthening bases against threats from unmanned aerial systems.
Special Forces: The Armed Forces will develop their special forces to conduct special operations autonomously or as part of multi-domain operations. This will include increased maritime capability, acquisition of autonomous/unmanned systems, and digitalization.
Military Regions and Home Guard: Military regions, military regional units, and Home Guard units will be developed to improve the ability to manage territorial activities and regional operations. This includes planning and implementing host nation support. The Home Guard units will renew and complement their vehicle fleet, introduce unmanned aerial vehicles, ground sensors, image intensifiers, new small arms, and support weapons.
Logistics and Healthcare: The logistics and healthcare of the Armed Forces will be developed to support the growth of other combat units and meet NATO's goals. This also involves developing the national logistics network and connecting it to neighboring countries' networks.