The Danish military intelligence service Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste (FE) assesses that Russia is currently conducting a form of hybrid warfare against NATO and the West. This is stated in a new open report published on 3 October.

In the report, FE describes hybrid warfare as a combined use of political, economic, informational, and military tools aimed at weakening other states without crossing the threshold of armed conflict. According to the intelligence service, it is highly likely that the threat from Russia in this area will increase in the coming years.

FE notes that Russia likely perceives itself as being in conflict with the West and acts accordingly with measures that remain below the threshold to trigger NATO's collective defence guarantee, Article 5.

Denmark's Minister of Defence Troels Lund Poulsen commented on the report at a press conference:

– Russia is conducting a hybrid war against NATO and the West. This requires further armament and strong cooperation – in fact, stronger cooperation than ever before. Russia is trying to divide us, but we will not let that happen, he said.

The assessment also lists current threat levels against Denmark:

  • Sabotage against the Danish Armed Forces: high threat level
  • Destructive cyber attacks: medium threat level
  • Military provocations against NATO countries: high threat level
  • Influence operations against Denmark: low threat level
  • Conventional military attack against Denmark: no threat

As examples of the hybrid threat landscape, increased violations of NATO countries' airspace are mentioned, particularly in countries such as Poland, Estonia, Finland, and Romania, as well as sabotage attempts in Europe. Additionally, a specific case in Denmark is mentioned where a waterworks was attacked by pro-Russian hacker groups in December 2024, leading to some households temporarily being without water.

At the same time, FE assesses that Russia likely sees itself as having room to continue hybrid attacks without risking direct retaliation. The goal, according to the report, is to gradually undermine NATO's political cohesion.