Must Sees Deteriorated Swedish Security Situation

The Military Intelligence and Security Service's (Must) annual overview for 2025 highlights a deteriorating security situation for Sweden, where Russia's military capacity and use of hybrid methods are assessed as central threats. The agency also points to increasing great power competition and potential risks associated with China and Iran.

In the annual overview's foreword, Thomas Nilsson, Lieutenant General and head of Must, provides his perspective on the situation.

– We live in dramatic times with great uncertainties. As this is written in December 2025, we look back on a year where the security situation has continued to deteriorate. The threats against Sweden are very serious, and the situation could worsen further, he writes.

In Sweden's vicinity, Russia's actions are described as decisive for this deteriorated security situation. 

Parallel to the war in Ukraine, Russia is gradually building up its military capability in the Baltic Sea region. According to Must, the country already today has the capacity to conduct limited armed attacks, sabotage, and disruptions against civilian and military targets in Sweden's vicinity. In a few years, Russia is assessed to be able to conduct more extensive operations, including naval blockades and territorial attacks. 

– Beyond the large-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine, we have seen how Russia's actions with hybrid means towards NATO and the EU have become increasingly risky and reckless, writes Thomas Nilsson. 

Hybrid warfare, sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation are identified as one of Russia's most important tools against Western countries. Must assesses that this type of warfare aims to affect the functioning, trust, and cohesion of societies and is no less serious than conventional violence. 

Must also highlights how great power competition is intensifying, while the importance of international rules is diminishing. Political and economic pressures are increasingly used as instruments of power, including through control over strategic resources, technology, and trade flows. The Arctic is highlighted as an area where rivalry is becoming increasingly apparent. 

– Great power competition already characterized the security policy landscape before Russia's attack on Ukraine in 2022, but the rivalry has further intensified, resulting in decreased global stability and predictability, says Thomas Nilsson. 

China is also identified in the report as a growing threat to Sweden's economic security. Through investments, technological collaborations, and control over value chains, dependencies risk arising that can be exploited in a tense security situation. Iran is also described as an actor conducting security-threatening activities, including attempts at influence and the use of proxies in Europe.  

Nilsson emphasizes that the threats must be met with a comprehensive national strategy and in cooperation with Sweden's allies. 

– It is of utmost importance that we address the threats against our country with a unified Swedish approach and together with our allies.