FOI: Espionage in Europe Becomes More Complex

The Swedish Defence Research Agency (Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut, FOI) has analysed espionage convictions in Europe between 2008 and 2024. FOI researchers identify Russia as the dominant instigator in the 70 cases reviewed and state that the threat landscape is broadening with both one-time actors and networks, according to the report, commissioned by the Swedish Security Service, the National Defence Radio Establishment, and the Military Intelligence and Security Service.

– The most common espionage method in our material is gathering information through photography. This can involve anything from parliamentary buildings to the transport of defence materiel, as well as information on military activities, says analyst Anna Lioufas.

The report's data is based on open sources concerning convicted individuals and interviews with prosecutors and journalists in the countries involved. A total of 70 cases across 20 nations are covered, with a significant number of unreported cases suspected. The study shows that Russia was the instigator in two-thirds of the cases. The second most common was China, with six cases. Geographically, a large portion of the activity has been concentrated in the Baltic region, particularly Estonia.

The convicted individuals are almost exclusively men, ranging in age from 21 to 82 years. The collection of information often targets military capabilities, infrastructure, and political processes, according to FOI's summary of the report.

Communication occurs through both physical handovers and digital methods.

Researchers observe a trend where long-term infiltrations are complemented by quicker, more opportunistic recruitments. This includes the use of individuals for limited assignments.

– Frankly, one could say that these are individuals whom the instigator does not care if they get caught or not, says Elina Elveborg Lindskog, researcher and project leader for the study.

A third of the studied individuals did not act alone but in collaboration with others, such as partners or colleagues. The driving forces, similar to the Cold War, are primarily economic incentives, ideology, pressure, or dissatisfaction with the employer. Researchers found no cases where substance abuse issues were used for blackmail.

– There are many interesting aspects to investigate. For example, that Russia collaborates with "ordinary" criminals in Poland whom they ask to spy on materiel that the Western world donates to Ukraine, says researcher Anna Wagman Kåring.