# Danish intelligence sees rising risk of limited Russian attack on NATO

- Source: Nordic Defence Sector (https://nordicdefencesector.com)
- Canonical URL: https://nordicdefencesector.com/en/article/danish-intelligence-sees-rising-risk-of-limited-russian-attack-on-nato
- Published: 2026-09-24
- Author: Daniel Trangeled
- Type: News · Country: denmark
- Language: en (original)
- Also available in: de (https://nordicdefencesector.com/de/article/danish-intelligence-sees-rising-risk-of-limited-russian-attack-on-nato.md), dk (https://nordicdefencesector.com/dk/article/danish-intelligence-sees-rising-risk-of-limited-russian-attack-on-nato.md), es (https://nordicdefencesector.com/es/article/danish-intelligence-sees-rising-risk-of-limited-russian-attack-on-nato.md), fi (https://nordicdefencesector.com/fi/article/danish-intelligence-sees-rising-risk-of-limited-russian-attack-on-nato.md), fr (https://nordicdefencesector.com/fr/article/danish-intelligence-sees-rising-risk-of-limited-russian-attack-on-nato.md), it (https://nordicdefencesector.com/it/article/danish-intelligence-sees-rising-risk-of-limited-russian-attack-on-nato.md), no (https://nordicdefencesector.com/no/article/danish-intelligence-sees-rising-risk-of-limited-russian-attack-on-nato.md), pl (https://nordicdefencesector.com/pl/article/danish-intelligence-sees-rising-risk-of-limited-russian-attack-on-nato.md), sv (https://nordicdefencesector.com/sv/article/danish-intelligence-sees-rising-risk-of-limited-russian-attack-on-nato.md)
- Primary source: https://www.fe-ddis.dk/da/nyheder/2026/vurdering-af-truslen-fra-rusland/
- Tags: danmark, forsvaret, forsvarets efterretningstjeneste, ryssland, threat assessment, hybrid warfare, danish defence intelligence service, nato, ukraina, lettland, forward land forces, article 5, gedser incident, russia, denmark, ukraine, gedser, latvia

> Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service (FE) warns of a low but rising risk that Russia will carry out limited military attacks on a NATO country bordering Russia. It also expects Moscow to escalate its hybrid war against the West. FE calls the 14 September incident off Gedser the most serious that Danish forces have faced.

![Thomas Ahrenkiel, Director of the Danish Defence Intelligence Service / Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste](https://imagedelivery.net/XO8UY-c6-LfWgEjQsN8IQw/b7ae6ed1-f6b8-407b-acfa-78e5ee2cdd00/public)
*Thomas Ahrenkiel, Director of the Danish Defence Intelligence Service / Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste · Danish Defence Intelligence Service*

**The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (FE) [published](https://www.fe-ddis.dk/da/nyheder/2026/vurdering-af-truslen-fra-rusland/) an unclassified assessment on 24 September. The assessment sees a low but rising risk that Russia will carry out limited military attacks on a NATO country bordering Russia. It also expects Russia to escalate its hybrid war against the West in the coming months.**

"Russia can do this even if the war in Ukraine continues and Russia is not ready for a regional war or a large-scale war against NATO," the assessment states. One example it gives is "isolated attacks with long-range weapons against infrastructure that plays a role in the support for Ukraine". Another could be a false flag attack using Ukrainian-made drones. Russia could also send small forces without national insignia into a NATO country bordering Russia.

FE judges that Russia would probably only attack if it believed this would not trigger war with a united NATO. The risk grows if Moscow concludes the US cannot or will not support its European allies.

"Although we consider it unlikely that Russia will attempt an actual invasion of a NATO country, we cannot rule it out," FE said. It sees no signs of one and estimates preparations would take at least six months.

FE calls the 14 September [incident](https://nordicdefencesector.com/en/article/russian-frigate-fires-flares-at-danish-military-helicopter) off Gedser, where a Russian frigate fired flares at a Danish military helicopter, the most serious that Danish units have faced.

FE has [previously assessed](https://nordicdefencesector.com/en/article/denmark-russia-conducts-hybrid-warfare-against-nato-and-the-) that Russia is conducting hybrid warfare against NATO and the West, as reported by NDS in October. At the time, FE judged that Russia still sought to avoid actions that could trigger NATO's Article 5.

Chief of Defence General Michael W. Hyldgaard [said](https://www.forsvaret.dk/da/nyheder/2026/kommentar-vedrorende-ny-trusselsvurdering-fra-fe/) Russia's threats against Denmark and its allies have gradually increased. He pointed to Denmark's large contribution in the Baltics, particularly Latvia. "Our soldiers in Forward Land Forces in Latvia are part of a multinational division with other NATO countries. We therefore do not stand alone against the threat from Russia in the Baltics," he said. "We are building up combat power at great speed."

## FAQ

**Vad säger den danska underrättelsetjänsten FE om risken för ett ryskt angrepp mot NATO?**

FE bedömer att risken för att Ryssland utför begränsade militära angrepp mot ett NATO-land som gränsar till Ryssland är låg men stigande. Detta gäller även om kriget i Ukraina fortsätter och Ryssland inte är redo för ett regionalt eller storskaligt krig mot NATO. FE utesluter inte en fullskalig invasion men bedömer den som osannolik. Senast faktagranskad: 2026-09-24.

**Vilka typer av begränsade attacker nämner FE som möjliga från Rysslands sida?**

FE nämner isolerade attacker med långdistansvapen mot infrastruktur som stödjer Ukraina samt en möjlig falsk flagg-attack med ukrainsktillverkade drönare. Ryssland kan även skicka mindre styrkor utan nationella insignier in i ett gränsande NATO-land. Sådana åtgärder syftar till att undvika ett direkt krig med hela NATO. Senast faktagranskad: 2026-09-24.

**Varför skulle Ryssland avstå från att attackera ett NATO-land enligt FE:s bedömning?**

FE bedömer att Ryssland troligen bara skulle attackera om Moskva trodde att det inte skulle utlösa krig med ett enat NATO. Risken ökar dock om Ryssland drar slutsatsen att USA inte kan eller vill stödja sina europeiska allierade. FE ser inga tecken på förberedelser och uppskattar att sådana skulle ta minst sex månader. Senast faktagranskad: 2026-09-24.

**Vad hände i incidenten vid Gedser den 14 september?**

Den 14 september avlossade en rysk fregatt lyssignaler mot en dansk militärhelikopter utanför Gedser. FE kallar detta den allvarligaste incident danska enheter har stått inför. Händelsen lyfts fram som exempel på Rysslands eskalerande agerande mot danska och allierade styrkor. Senast faktagranskad: 2026-09-24.

**Hur kommenterade försvarschef Michael W. Hyldgaard det ökade hotet från Ryssland?**

Hyldgaard sade att Rysslands hot mot Danmark och dess allierade gradvis har ökat. Han lyfte Danmarks stora bidrag i Baltikum, särskilt i Lettland, där danska soldater ingår i Forward Land Forces tillsammans med andra NATO-länder. Han betonade att Danmark inte står ensamt och att man bygger upp stridskraft i snabb takt. Senast faktagranskad: 2026-09-24.

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